Making decisions one drink at a time and the "just one drink" effect: A fuzzy-trace theory model of harmful drinking.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the decision factors that drive harmful alcohol use among young adults is of practical and theoretical importance. We apply fuzzy-trace theory (FTT) to investigate a potential danger that may arise from the arguably correct notion that a single drink carries no meaningful risk. Decisions that are mentally represented as one drink at a time could contribute to excessive drinking. METHODS: College students (N = 351) made a series of decisions to take or decline eight hypothetical drinks presented one at a time. Outcome measures included each decision, recent alcohol consumption (weekly drinks, peak blood alcohol content, and binges), and alcohol-related harms (scores on the Brief Young Adult Alcohol Consequences Questionnaire and Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test). Linear regression models predicted each outcome from sex, perceived risk of a single drink, perceived risk of heavy drinking, perceived consequences of drinking, and general health-related risk sensitivity. RESULTS: Consistent with FTT, decisions to have a first drink and up to four additional drinks in short succession were each associated with lower perceived risk of one drink-a "just-one drink" effect-independent of perceived risks of heavy drinking, perceived consequences of drinking, and general risk sensitivity. Similarly, all measures of recent alcohol consumption and consequent harms were associated with perceived risk of one drink. Participants reporting "zero risk" of a single drink had worse outcomes on all measures than those reporting at least "low risk." CONCLUSIONS: Results are consistent with the theoretically informed premise that consumption decisions are typically made one drink at a time rather than by deciding the total number of drinks to be consumed in a sitting. When decisions about alcohol use proceed one drink at a time, a perception of zero risk in a single drink may contribute to heavy drinking.

Providing the Gist of Medical Expertise in the Context of Laws, Rules, and Guidelines: Fuzzy-Trace Theory's Alternative Approach to Improve Patient Communication.

Current guidelines and regulatory frameworks create a dilemma that threatens the effectiveness of much needed communication between patients and medical providers: How can patients be presented with detailed facts without creating cognitive "overload"? We explain how this is a false dichotomy and illustrate, using three examples, how fuzzy-trace theory offers a third way of informing patients.

Critical tests of fuzzy trace theory in brain and behavior: uncertainty across time, probability, and development.

Uncertainty permeates decisions from the trivial to the profound. Integrating brain and behavioral evidence, we discuss how probabilistic (varied outcomes) and temporal (delayed outcomes) uncertainty differ across age and individuals; how critical tests adjudicate between theories of uncertainty (prospect theory and fuzzy-trace theory); and how these mechanisms might be represented in the brain. The same categorical gist representations of gains and losses account for choices and eye-tracking data in both value-allocation (add money to gambles) and risky-choice tasks, disconfirming prospect theory and confirming predictions of fuzzy-trace theory. The analysis is extended to delay discounting and disambiguated choices, explaining hidden-zero effects that similarly turn on categorical distinctions between some gain and no gain, certain gain and uncertain gain, gain and loss, and now and later. Bold activation implicates dorsolateral prefrontal and posterior parietal cortices in gist strategies that are not just one tool in a grab-bag of cognitive options but rather are general strategies that systematically predict behaviors across many different tasks involving probabilistic and temporal uncertainty. High valuation (e.g., ventral striatum; ventromedial prefrontal cortex) and low executive control (e.g., lateral prefrontal cortex) contribute to risky and impatient choices, especially in youth. However, valuation in ventral striatum supports reward-maximizing and gist strategies in adulthood. Indeed, processing becomes less "rational" in the sense of maximizing gains and more noncompensatory (eye movements indicate fewer tradeoffs) as development progresses from adolescence to adulthood, as predicted. Implications for theoretically predicted "public-health paradoxes" are discussed, including gist versus verbatim thinking in drug experimentation and addiction.

Supporting Health and Medical Decision Making: Findings and Insights from Fuzzy-Trace Theory.

HIGHLIGHTS: Fuzzy-trace theory (FTT) supports practical approaches to improving health and medicine.FTT differs in important respects from other theories of decision making, which has implications for how to help patients, providers, and health communicators.Gist mental representations emphasize categorical distinctions, reflect understanding in context, and help cue values relevant to health and patient care.Understanding the science behind theory is crucial for evidence-based medicine.

Viruses, Vaccines, and COVID-19: Explaining and Improving Risky Decision-making.

Risky decision-making lies at the center of the COVID-19 pandemic and will determine future viral outbreaks. Therefore, a critical evaluation of major explanations of such decision-making is of acute practical importance. We review the underlying mechanisms and predictions offered by expectancy-value and dual-process theories. We then highlight how fuzzy-trace theory builds on these approaches and provides further insight into how knowledge, emotions, values, and metacognitive inhibition influence risky decision-making through its unique mental representational architecture (i.e., parallel verbatim and gist representations of information). We discuss how social values relate to decision-making according to fuzzy-trace theory, including how categorical gist representations cue core values. Although gist often supports health-promoting behaviors such as vaccination, social distancing, and mask-wearing, why this is not always the case as with status-quo gist is explained, and suggestions are offered for how to overcome the "battle for the gist" as it plays out in social media.

How Fuzzy-trace Theory Predicts Development of Risky Decision Making, with Novel Extensions to Culture and Reward Sensitivity.

Comprehensive meta-analyses of risky decision making in children, adolescents, and adults have revealed that age trends in disambiguated laboratory tasks confirmed fuzzy-trace theory's prediction that preference for risk decreases monotonically from childhood to adulthood. These findings are contrary to predictions of dual systems or neurobiological imbalance models. Assumptions about increasing developmental reliance on mental representations of the gist of risky options are essential to account for this developmental trend. However, dual systems theory appropriately emphasizes how cultural context changes behavioral manifestation of risk preferences across age and neurobiological imbalance models appropriately emphasize developmental changes in reward sensitivity. All of the major theories include the assumption of increasing behavioral inhibition. Here, we integrate these theoretical constructs-representation, cultural context, reward sensitivity, and behavioral inhibition-to provide a novel framework for understanding and improving risky decision making in youth. We also discuss the roles of critical tests, scientific falsification, disambiguating assessments of psychological and neurological processes, and the misuse of such concepts as ecological validity and reverse inference. We illustrate these concepts by extending fuzzy-trace theory to explain why youth are a major conduit of viral infections, including the virus that causes COVID-19. We conclude by encouraging behavioral scientists to embrace new ways of thinking about risky decision making that go beyond traditional stereotypes about adolescents and that go beyond conceptualizing ideal decision making as trading off degrees of risk and reward.